International Political Economy
Latin America
Statistical Methods
Elections

Social Science History Institute
Institute for International Studies

• Fellow Designate, Center for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences (2002)
• Office of Technology Licensing Research Initiative, Stanford (2001)
• Okidata Award for the Best Research Software in Political Science, APSA (1999)
• MacArthur Fellowship in Transnational Security (1999-2000)
• Social Science Research Council Dissertation Fellowship (1998-99)
• Institute for the Study of World Politics Dissertation Fellowship (1998-99)
• Harvard Merit Fellowship (1997-98)
• Foreign Language and Area Studies Fellowship (1997-98)
• National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship (1994-97)
• Marshall Scholarship (1992-94)

Books

 Modern Political Economy and Latin America: Theory and Policy, editor (with J. Frieden and M. Pastor).  Boulder: Westview Press, 2000.

Articles

“How Does Voting Equipment Affect the Racial Gap in Voided Ballots? (with Robert Van Houweling). American Journal of Political Science 47, no. 1 (January 2003): 46-60.

“Relogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression” (with Gary King and Langche Zeng). Journal of Statistical Software 8, no. 2 (2003) and Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 12, no. 1 (2003).

“Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results” (with Jason Wittenberg and Gary King). Journal of Statistical Software 8, no. 2 (2003) and Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics 12, no. 1 (2003).

“An Easy and Accurate Regression Model for Multiparty Electoral Data” (with Joshua Tucker and Jason Wittenberg). Political Analysis 10, no. 1 (Winter 2002): 66-83.

"Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation" (with G. King and J. Wittenberg).  American Journal of Political Science 44, no. 2 (April 2000): 347-61.

"Electoral Surprise and the Midterm Loss in US Congressional Elections" (with K. Scheve). British Journal of Political Science 29 (July 1999): 507-21.

"The Long-Run Advantages of Centralization for Collective Action" (with E. Schwartz). American Political Science Review 91 (September 1997): 685-93.

Working Papers

"Explaining International Cooperation: Reputation in Global Capital Markets." Presented at the Annual Meetings of the APSA, 1999.

"Do Creditors Ignore History?" Presented at the International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, 1998.

"Do International Agreements Make Reforms More Credible? The Impact of NAFTA on Mexican Stock Prices." Presented at the Annual Meetings of the APSA, 1997.

Statistical Software

Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results (with J. Wittenberg and G. King). Uses stochastic simulation to interpret statistical results and convey them in a reader-friendly manner. Clarify won the 1999 APSA Award for the Best Research Software in Political Science.

ReLogit: Rare Events Logistic Regression (with G. King and L. Zeng). Performs logistic regression when the sample is unbalanced or has been selected by a rule correlated with the dependent variable.